ScoutingBlitz’s 1st Mock Draft- Top 10 Picks

Posted: January 31, 2013 in 2013 NFL Draft, Mock Draft

I have been given a great deal of advice and insight from other draft analysts around the country (especially Matt Miller of Bleacher Report) on great websites and places to get game film on most of the draft prospects coming out this year. I have been pouring over film, and still have lots left to do, but I feel that I can make a good, educated, guess at the 1st round picks for the upcoming NFL Draft. As all mock drafts are, this is a VERY EARLY look in this process. We haven’t even had free agency yet and I am guessing on who will be signed and who wont be. For instance, if the Kansas City Chiefs resign their LT Brandon Albert this off season, my entire Mock Draft changes. So it is early and there is still more to come, but here is my 1st attempt at a 2013 NFL Mock Draft.

1. Kansas City Chiefs- OT Luke Joeckel, 6’6 310 lbs, Texas A&M

1Like I mentioned above, this all relies on if the Chiefs resign Albert. They have one of the best right tackles in the game in Eric Winston so they wont resign Albert and still take Joeckel. Joeckel is a plug and play Left Tackle who has exceptional pass protection skills and very quick feet. By far the best tackle prospect in the draft. Quarterback is a need, a very large need, but I just don’t see the Chiefs taking Geno Smith this high. All could change throughout the process, but I feel good about this pick.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars- DT Star Lotulelei, 6’4 320 lbs, Utah

2If you want to see a dominating performance from an interior lineman, put on the Utah vs USC game and watch number 92. Loutulelei was a beast for the Utes this season and one of the most dominating players to come out of college since Ndamakong Suh. The Jaguars need a lot of help with this roster, and I feel that Gus Bradley will try to build starting with his defense. The DL has issues, but they are better at DE with Jason Babin and Andre Branch than they are at DT. Terrance Knighton will be a free agent and they need to get Tyson Alualu some help inside. Lotulelei comes in from Day 1 as a starter and makes them a stouter defense.

3. Oakland Raiders- DE Barkevious Mingo, 6’5 240 lbs, LSU

3jpgThe Raiders are an interesting scouting report. They have a very poor defense that could use 1st round help at three different defensive spots (DT, DE, and CB). I feel their biggest need is getting a pass rush. Oakland was one of the worst teams in the NFL at getting to the QB and instant help along the line is needed. Mingo is one of those prospects that will test extremely well in this draft process and show elite skills that you look for in a 1st round pass rusher. With Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour entering the twilight of their careers, I could see a need to upgrade at DT at this spot. However, Mingo is just too good of an upside to pass on and his value outweighs the next top rated DT, Sheldon Richardson of Missouri.

4. Philadelphia Eagles-CB Dee Milliner, 6’1 196 lbs, Alabama

4Chip Kelly is a hell of an offensive coach and he will need to be to help find a way to make up for a very poor offensive line in 2012. Granted, they were ravaged by injuries and when healthy have one of the best LT’s in the game in Jason Peter. They need help in a lot of areas and I don’t feel that they make an Offensive Lineman their first pick. On defense they were atrocious and what use to be an elite defensive backfield is no more. The Eagles will most likely part ways with Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie and Nnamdi Asoumugha is not producing at his contract level. Enter Milliner fresh off a National Championship season to help Kelly get it going. Milliner has elite cover skills and was coached by an NFL caliber staff at Alabama. He is long and has exceptional awareness and instincts  Corner is an easier transition then most NFL positions and I think Milliner starts from Day 1.

5. Detroit Lions- DE Bjoern Werner, 6’4 272 lbs, Florida State

5When doing this mock draft, my initial impression is that Detroit needs the most help at OL. Right tackle Gosder Cherilus is a free agent and they are getting OLD at left tackle, center and right guard. However, they used a 1st round pick on Riley Reiff and that helps shore up some tackle concerns they will have, at least until Jeff Backus is gone. Guard is a possibility, and Chance Warmack of Alabama could be the pick, but I think they have to look pass rush. Werner is a physical specimen who has solid pass rush skills and is very technically sound. Defensive end will be a need for the Lions, they are stout at DT but need help on the edge. Werner is an every down player, not just a situation specific pass rusher.

6. Cleveland Browns- OLB Jarvis Jones, 6’3 241 lbs, Georgia

6The Browns will be running a 3-4 scheme next year and will have to put some pieces together rin free agency and this draft to make it happen. The first step is drafting an outside linebacker who can help with the pass rush and still not be a liability in coverage. Jones is polished 3-4 scheme player who excels in the pass rush category. I have my doubts about him at times when I watch film, but he will test well and is a fit for what Browns DC Ray Horton says they want to do. Jones is a relentless worker on the field and he is a guy that has played A LOT at the SEC level.

7. Arizona Cardinals- OT Eric Fisher, 6’7 310 lbs, Central Michigan

7Bruce Arians will have his work cut out for him this off season  The Cardinals roster has a lot of question marks and they are in need of a stable quarterback to lead this team. However, I think they stick with what Kevin Kolb at QB one more year and try to find protection for him. They have play makers at wide receiver and a solid stable of backs, when healthy. Fisher is a fantastic left tackle prospect who would shore up that critical need for the Cardinals  He is a technician in his pass protection and really helped himself with his Senior Bowl performance. If they don’t trade out for more picks or take a QB, I think this is the way to go.

8. Buffalo Bills- QB Geno Smith, 6’3 214 lbs, West Virginia

8The first quarterback off the board most likely wont be this late. There are just too many teams in need of help at the signal caller position. However, in this early mock draft I have the Buffalo Bills taking a quarterback. They are in need of a change at the top, and Geno Smith is a play maker who can help this offense find some creativity and explosiveness  Doug Marrone obviously will have his choice to keep his college signal caller in Ryan Nassib, as he will be available at this spot. I just cant see Marrone staking his career on Nassib for his first pick of the new regime. Geno Smith is NOT a system quarter back. He has a cannon for an arm and is average to above average in the accuracy department. He puts tremendous touch on the ball. I think Smith will be a great prospect in the NFL and could help a team like the Bills immediately.

9. New York Jets- OLB/DE Dion Jordan, 6’6 243 lbs, Oregon

9Rex Ryan is firmly sitting on the hottest seat of any NFL head coach. The vaunted defense of a few years ago had a lot of trouble getting to the QB in 2012. Not only that, but they are getting pretty long in the tooth and could use an injection of youth. Through the draft the last couple of years the Jets have formulated a pretty solid front three for their defense. However, they could use someone opposite Calvin pace to help get more pressure on the QB. In steps Jordan, a long and lean prospect who has shown that he can play in coverage and also get to the quarterback. He needs work, but unless the Jets grab someone in free agency, there are not too many prospects like Jordan to help shore up that defense.

10. Tennessee Titans- Chance Warmack, 6’3 320 lbs, Alabama

10Hall of Fame offensive lineman Mike Munchak will be foaming at the mouth if Warmack falls to them at 10. The Titans have to get back to the running game and in starts by getting better and younger on the offensive line. Warmack comes in and plays right away fro any team in the league. He is an excellent run blocker who will open holes for Chris Johnson. I see the most “sure thing” of a prospect in Warmack and I think not only is he the best player on the board at this pick, he is also the most need for the Titans. Guards Steve Hutchinson and Leroy Harris are solid, but one is 35 and one is a free agent. Warmack steps right in and makes them better.

I will publish my picks 11-20 tomorrow and I think you will be surprised by what I have projected. Needless to say, I hope it is enjoyable for you to read. This will be a moving chart and I will update it after every major event in the NFL off season. Thanks for reading.

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